Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
