A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
